解决尼泊尔贸易失衡的双边解决方案

Bilateral Solutions for Nepal’s Trade Imbalance

巴尔穆昆达·雷格米

Balmukunda Regmi

一、问题的提出

I. Statement of problem

尼泊尔地处两个大国之间，尼泊尔的国际贸易基本上仅限于中国和印度。随着拉纳政权的结束和向世界开放，尼泊尔的贸易多样化始于1951年。在1964年发表的重要文章《尼泊尔的最近的贸易政策》中，YP Pant描述了1951年之前尼泊尔与印度的有利贸易是如何变成赤字的。尼泊尔与巴基斯坦（包括今天的孟加拉国）的贸易量只占贸易总额的不到3%。潘特还提到，尼泊尔与西藏的贸易微不足道的。

Being landlocked between two large countries, Nepal’s international trade has been basically limited to China and India. With the end of the Rana regime and opening up to the world, Nepal’s trade diversification began in 1951. In his seminal article “Nepal’s Recent Trade Policy” published in Asian Survey in 1964, YP Pant describes how Nepal’s favorable trade with India before 1951 had turned to a deficit. Nepal’s trade volume with Pakistan (including the present-day Bangladesh) accounted for less than three percent of the total. Pant also mentioned that Nepal’s trade with Tibet was negligible.

随着加德满都—拉萨公路和其他陆路路线的建设，中国成为我们的第二大贸易伙伴，今天占对外贸易总额的14%。印度仍然是我们的主要贸易伙伴，占总贸易总额的64%。尼泊尔与印度、孟加拉国和中国有积极的过境条约。同样，我们的贸易基本上仅限于印度和中国。

With the construction of the Kathmandu-Lhasa Highway and other land routes, China became our second largest trade partner, today covering 14 percent of total foreign trade. India remains our major trade partner, making for 64 percent of total trade. Nepal has active transit treaties with India, Bangladesh and China. Again, our trade is basically limited to India and China.

最令人困扰的是尼泊尔的贸易逆差，它在2020-21年达到了116.9亿美元。尼泊尔对印度的出口是从印度进口的十分之一。在中国，尼泊尔在2020-21年的进口额为19.5亿美元，而我们的出口额仅为微不足道的835万美元。在当前财政年度的前六个月，国际收支平衡（BoP）亏损了20亿美元。如此巨大的贸易赤字和负面的有机有机磷可能预示着经济的失败。这需要立即引起注意。

Most troubling is Nepal's trade deficit, which hit $11.69bn in 2020-21. Nepal exports to India a tenth of what it imports from there. With China, while Nepal’s import was $1.95 billion in 2020-21, our export was a negligible $8.35 million. In the first six months of the current fiscal, the balance of payment (BoP) was at a loss of $2bn. Such huge trade deficits and negative BoP can herald an economic failure, which needs immediate attention.

2019年尼泊尔总收入为6.68亿美元的巨额赤字是不现实的。汇款也在下降。尼泊尔工人在海外的人口结构正在发生变化，前往更发达国家和地区的熟练工人数量不断增加，并选择在那里定居。他们不太可能向他们不打算居住的尼泊尔汇款。因此，尼泊尔尚未找到一种平衡其贸易的有效方法。

Compensating such huge deficits with tourism, which brought Nepal total revenue of $668 million in 2019, is unrealistic. Remittance too is declining. The demography of Nepali workers overseas is changing, with an increase in the number of skilled workers who are going to more advanced countries and regions, and choosing to settle there. They are less likely to send remittances to Nepal where they do not intend to live. Nepal is thus yet to find an effective way to balance its trade.

二、失败的地方主义

II． Failing Regionalism

包括世贸组织在内的多边贸易论坛已经成为解决贸易壁垒的一种方案，承诺进行协调的贸易谈判，使较小的经济体能够获得公平的条件。区域谈判还有助于成员国在处理具有相似合作潜力的不同邻国时避免采用双重标准。

Multilateral trade forums, including the WTO, have emerged as a solution to trade barriers, promising coordinated trade negotiations that enable smaller economies to get fair terms. Regional negotiations also help member countries avoid double standards in dealing with different neighbors of similar cooperation potentials.

简化多边合作肯定有利于贸易。不幸的是，并非所有成员国和地区都能取得平等的收益。多边合作帮助那些在全球贸易中具有竞争力的人，阻碍相对弱势的群体。

Simplification of multilateral cooperation definitely facilitates trades. Unfortunately, not all member countries and regions can make equal gains. Multilateral cooperation helps those who prove competitive in global trade, and hinders the relatively weak and disadvantaged.

尼泊尔需要的是确定地理和经济区域，这使尼泊尔有机会更公平地开展业务。目前，与北方的区域贸易合作范围很小，因为货物难以通过广阔的邻国中国。南亚是尼泊尔的所在地，这也是为什么它帮助建立了南亚自由贸易区（SAFTA）——以阿富汗、孟加拉国、不丹、印度、马尔代夫、尼泊尔、巴基斯坦和斯里兰卡作为其签署国。

What Nepal needs is to identify geographical and economic regions, membership in which gives it an opportunity to carry business more fairly. At present there is little scope of regional trade cooperation with the north as it is difficult for cargos to get past the vast, neighboring China. South Asia is where Nepal belongs, which is also why it helped establish the South Asian Free Trade Area (SAFTA)—with Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Maldives, Nepal, Pakistan and Sri Lanka as its signatories.

尼泊尔还在2004年加入了孟加拉湾多部门技术和经济合作倡议（BIMSTEC），其优先领域包括贸易和投资和旅游业。孟加拉国、不丹、印度、缅甸、尼泊尔、斯里兰卡和泰国都是双边自由贸易区的成员。然而，我们的经贸合作基本上仅限于印度。

Nepal also joined the Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation (BIMSTEC) in 2004 whose priority areas include trade and investment, and tourism. Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Myanmar, Nepal, Sri Lanka and Thailand are members of the BIMSTEC Free Trade Area. However, our economic and trade cooperation has been basically limited to India.

并不是说在SAFTA或双领域内部不可能存在有意义的合作。在印度的帮助下，电力、农产品、信息技术、医药、旅游和教育等产品和服务已经出现了贸易的迹象。然而，与印度和中国相比，与其他国家的贸易量很小，它们的贸易顺差不太可能抵消对印度和中国的逆差。

Not that there is no possibility of meaningful cooperation within SAFTA or BIMSTEC. With Indian help, there are already signs of trade in products and services like electricity, agricultural products, information technology, medicine, tourism and education. However, compared to India and China, trade volumes with other countries are small, and any trade surplus with them is unlikely to offset the deficits with India and China.

三、邻国的双边关系

III． Go Bilateral

尼泊尔在尼中、尼印三方合作方面的努力没有成功。中国和印度有着漫长的陆地边界，同时也与海洋相连。与尼泊尔相连的中国土地人口稀少，除了矿产和印度向卡伊拉什山朝圣之外的贸易范围有限。连接本身并不会给尼泊尔带来实质性的经济收益。此外，中印之间的长期竞争不利于三方合作。

Nepal’s efforts at Nepal-China-India trilateral cooperation have not been successful. China and India share a long land border, and are also connected with seas. The Chinese land connected to Nepal is sparsely populated, and has limited scope for trade other than in minerals, and Indian pilgrimage to Mount Kailash and Mansarovar. Connectivity alone will not bring Nepal substantial economic gains. Further, long-term rivalry between China and India is not conducive to trilateral cooperation. Nepal is a minor trade partner for both China and India. But, for us, they are major ones. Here, economic and trade diplomacy could be useful

首先，印度与尼泊尔保持着开放、开放的边界，经常为从尼泊尔进口设定条件。印度表示，其优惠条款只适用于源自尼泊尔的商品和服务，并不包括涉及外国原材料或投资的商品和服务。

First, we should classify our trade items into essential and non-essential. We should then allow import of non-essential commodities, provided such imports do not lead to bilateral trade imbalance.

其次，尼泊尔是中国和印度的一个次要贸易伙伴。但是，对我们来说，它们是主要的。在这里，经贸外交可能是有用的。首先，我们应该把我们的贸易项目分为必要的和非必要的。然后，我们应该允许进口非必要商品，只要这种进口不会导致双边贸易不平衡。其次，我们应该要求中国和印度在尼泊尔投资于有助于进口替代的部门，并促进我们对投资国家或对我们保留配额之外的其他市场的出口。

Secondly, we should request China and India to invest in Nepal in sectors that contribute to import substitution, and promote our export to the investing country or to other markets outside our reserved quota.

第三，我们应该听取他们关于双边贸易平衡的建议，只要这些措施不对尼泊尔的经济、就业、社会和谐、文化、价值观、政治和国际关系产生负面影响，我们就应该尽量适应它们。

Thirdly, we should listen to their suggestions on bilateral trade balance, and try to accommodate them so long as such measures do not negatively affect Nepali economy, jobs, social harmony, culture, values, politics and international relations.

当然，我们从邻居那里进口的一些物品是精炼的第三国原材料，或者在这里供应短缺。这些项目可以被认为是必要的，因此在评价双边贸易平衡时应排除在外。这些项目以及与安全有关和救生的商品和服务以及新的基本技术都可以通过捐款、汇款和国际合作加以覆盖。

Sure, some items we import from our neighbors are refined third-country raw materials, or are in short supply here. Such items can be considered essential, and thus should be excluded in the evaluation of bilateral trade balance. These items as well as security-related and life-saving goods and services and new essential technologies can be covered through donations, remittance and international cooperation.

结语

Conclusion

有了正确的决定和适度的紧缩政策，我们就可以在食物和基本服务方面实现自给自足。除此之外，尼泊尔还应该采取平衡双边贸易的政策。

With right decisions and modest austerity, we can become self-sufficient in food and basic services. Outside these, Nepal should adopt a policy of balanced bilateral trade.

作者是特里布文大学的药学教授

The author is a professor of pharmacy at Tribhuvan University

责任编辑：赵一鹤